sóley

12-month funding forecast

v1.2 · locked 2026-05-07 · €7M pre-money · 12 months · direct Series A out of pre-seed · Download spreadsheet (.xlsx)

Behind the €7M pre-money: v1.1 four-method valuation triangulation (.xlsx, locked April 2026).

€1.5M for 12 months of runway, direct to Series A.

Sóley raises a pre-seed round of €1.5M at €7M pre-money, approximately 17.6 percent dilution, sized to deliver a 12-month plan and structured for a direct Series A out of pre-seed. Iceland operationally at density, four countries platform-available, Series-A-ready revenue traction at the 10 percent commission rate.

The round funds: founder full-time from month 1 (programming the platform himself, a 20-year financial-services-technology background applied directly to product), one onboarding lead from month 1, one engineer (junior or contract) from month 6 to scale shipping capacity into the international platform-availability sprint, Reykjavík office and equipment, expanded legal scope (multi-jurisdiction structuring, Bókun ToS opinion, per-country tourism-act opinions for Phase 3 countries), the Iceland operator density push, and platform-availability work in three non-Iceland countries run from Iceland with travel rather than country-lead hires.

The end state at month 12: Iceland operationally at density (approximately 200 to 400 operators), four countries platform-available (Iceland plus three, open for business but only just starting), Series-A-ready revenue traction at the 10 percent commission rate, properly-live milestone (first paying operators plus connector status on at least one major AI platform) achieved earlier in the period.

Iceland-anchored, three-country lite-international.

• Iceland-anchored plus three-country lite-international. Not Iceland-only (which understates the international ambition); not ten countries (which overshoots a calibrated pre-seed plan).
• 12-month horizon. End-of-period milestone is multiple, at month 12: properly-live (mid-period), Iceland density, four countries platform-available, Series-A-ready.
• Founder full-time from month 1, programming solo through month 5. Ragnar transitions to Sóley full-time at round close. Two decades of financial-services-technology shipping experience (HSBC London distributed-pricing systems, Man Group, GLG Partners) means a senior engineering hire from day one is not the binding constraint; founder time on operator onboarding and product is. An engineer (junior or contract) joins month 6 to scale shipping capacity through the international platform-availability sprint.
• Three-person core team, with buffer for opportunistic senior-engineer or commercial-co-founder hire. End-of-period team is three FTEs (founder, onboarding lead, engineer M6+). The round carries an explicit €200k buffer that funds either a senior engineer brought in earlier than M6 if scope demands, or a commercial co-founder if the right candidate surfaces.
• Pre-seed, single round, direct to Series A. No bridge, no convertible-on-top, no intermediate Seed round. €1.5M closes the round; the next raise is Series A. Series A funds the move from platform-available to operator density across the four countries plus expansion to additional countries; full global rollout is post-Series-A.

Where Cognia ehf starts.

• Cognia ehf cash position: zero.
• Current burn: founder time and AI tokens. No payroll today, no contractor commitments.
• Team: founder solo. No co-founder candidate yet.
• POC: live in production at api.soley.travel/mcp. Multi-operator basket and per-leg payment plumbing built and demonstrable.
• Connector applications: pending at Anthropic and OpenAI.
• Anchor operator conversations: in progress; zero signed agreements.

Three FTEs by end of month 12.

The +20% on top of gross is the standard Iceland employer load (tryggingagjald, lífeyrissjóður, employer obligations), used to convert gross-to-employee into total cost to Cognia. Founder programs the platform solo through month 5. Sized realistically against twenty years of financial-services-technology shipping (HSBC London, Man Group, GLG Partners) and the Sóley POC built end to end. Engineer joins M6 to scale shipping capacity into the international platform-availability sprint. The round carries a €200k buffer for an opportunistic senior-engineer or commercial-co-founder hire if the right candidate surfaces.

Channel-wedge sequence, additive at every stage.

The operator-side rollout follows the channel-wedge sequence, additive at every stage, never asking operators to disconnect anything. End of pre-seed window is operator density in Iceland plus first anchor operators in three non-Iceland countries. Series A funds the move from platform-available to operator density across the four countries plus expansion to additional countries; full global rollout is post-Series-A.

• Months 1 to 3 (agent channel). Three to five anchor operators onboarded; agent-channel-only; commission charged at 10 percent on bookings flowing through the channel from day one.
• Months 4 to 6 (long-tail distribution and first commission). Fifteen to thirty operators; regional destination-marketing-organisation (markaðsstofur landshlutanna) introductions begin; properly-live milestone (first paying operators plus connector status on at least one major AI platform) typically hit during this window.
• Months 7 to 9 (direct booking widget and Iceland density). Sixty to a hundred-and-twenty operators; first non-Iceland country lite-opinion returned, platform-availability work begins.
• Months 10 to 12 (operations and analytics, plus three-country international platform-available). Two hundred to four hundred Iceland operators plus first one to three anchor operators per non-Iceland country.

End-of-month-12 target: approximately 200 to 400 Iceland operators plus 3 to 9 non-Iceland anchor operators across three countries. Operator-side ramp is the highest-uncertainty line in the forecast.

Commission flow at 10 percent, billed separately.

Sóley's commission is 10 percent, billed to operators separately from the booking transaction (never deducted from the traveller's payment). At a sample average booking value of 60,000 ISK:

Total commission revenue across 12 months in the base case: approximately €0.6 to €1.2M. Annualised end-of-period run rate (month 12): approximately €1.0 to €4.0M ARR equivalent, base case roughly €1.5 to €2.5M. Confidence: Estimate, with significant downside risk if operator-onboarding rate underperforms. The forecast sizes the round on the cost side; revenue is upside.

12-month totals.

What an investor can verify, quarter by quarter.

• End Q1 (month 3). Founder full-time on payroll, programming the platform solo. Onboarding lead live. First three to five anchor operators onboarded on agent channel. Tourism Act and Bókun legal opinions returned. Anthropic / OpenAI connector status update. Reykjavík office signed.
• End Q2 (month 6). Fifteen to thirty operators on agent channel and first commission cohort live. Properly-live milestone hit (first paying operators plus connector status on at least one major AI platform). Multi-jurisdiction structuring complete. First international country scoping begins. Engineer joins (junior or contract).
• End Q3 (month 9). Sixty to a hundred-and-twenty operators with first commission revenue (€20-80k / month). First international country lite-opinion returned, platform-availability work in flight. Second international country scoping in flight.
• End Q4 (month 12). Two hundred to four hundred Iceland operators plus four countries platform-available (Iceland plus three) with one or two anchor operators each. Series-A-ready revenue traction at the 10 percent commission rate (€80-300k / month base case). Three FTEs on staff plus any opportunistic hires from the buffer. Series A round opens.

Three scenarios, narrow band.

Slow case is the realistic risk to size against. Base case is what the round funds. Fast case is upside.

Honest about what is outside the window.

• Revenue at month 12 sufficient to be Series-A-default-yes. The forecast describes a Series-A-ready state; the actual round still depends on traction quality and macro.
• Connector approval at Anthropic or OpenAI by any specific month. Pending applications; the platform works without official directory listing if needed.
• Per-country operator density in the three international countries. End state is platform-available with one to three anchor operators per country, not density.
• Senior-engineer or commercial-co-founder hire. The model carries a €200k buffer for an opportunistic hire (senior engineer earlier than M6 if scope demands, or a commercial co-founder with tourism depth) but no commitment. If a hire materialises, they enter the model as a salary-bearing FTE; if not, the buffer extends runway or absorbs slow-case operator-ramp risk.

€7M pre-money; approximately 17.6 percent dilution.

The €1.5M round prices at €7M pre-money, approximately 17.6 percent dilution, consistent with European pre-seed convention augmented by an Icelandic strategic-investor signal. The plan compresses execution to a 12-month horizon and is structured for a direct Series A out of pre-seed. There is no intermediate Seed round.